Year-1 Exposure Calculator · TEAM

See your downside risk before the architecture locks in.

The Transforming Episode Accountability Model went live Jan 1, 2026. Enter your case mix below to model your exposure across all five surgical bundles — stop-loss scales from ~5% in PY2 toward 20% by PY3–5.

Your exposure, live

Edit annual volume and regional bundle price for each episode. Totals and phase-in exposure recalculate as you type. Pre-filled with a mid-size community-hospital example.

Surgical episodeAnnual vol.Bundle $Bundle revenue
Total bundle revenue
Stop-loss applied: PY2 5% · PY3+ 20%

Default bundle prices are regional-average estimates. Replace with your actual CMS-set target prices for a calibrated number. Exposure = bundle revenue × downside stop-loss cap.

PY2 downside exposure (5%)
at-risk dollars once mandatory stop-loss begins
PY1
$0
voluntary
PY2
$0
~5% cap
PY3–5
$0
~20% cap
Bundle revenue by episode

Three architecture decisions that change this number

The formula measures how much is at risk. Your architecture determines how much risk you actually run.

Decision 01

Episode data — integrated or parallel?

Integrated puts episode data in the same canonical model as pop-health analytics — cross-cuts answer in one query. Parallel means manual reconciliation and "why don't the numbers match" every QBR.

Decision 02

Target-price modeling — vendor or co-built?

Vendor-supplied is easy but a black box; you wait for releases when CMS shifts methodology. Co-built is slower to ship, faster to adapt — run what-ifs immediately.

Decision 03

Notification + referral workflow

Bolted-on ships fast but is operational debt forever. Embedded in existing care-coordination costs more upfront and lifts your Composite Quality Score, which factors in engagement.

Want to pressure-test your real exposure?

I run 3-month bounded engagements with community-hospital CIOs on TEAM readiness — diagnostic first, co-build with your clinical / finance / analytics leaders, a delivery system that stays after I leave. $25–40K/month with land-and-expand if the first cycle works.